I'm taking a break from all of the depressing news and posting some jokes/humor. Some of these may be a bit off color.
---------------------------
US Air Force Maintenance
Here are some actual maintenance complaints submitted by US Air Force pilots and the replies from the maintenance crews.
Problem: "Left inside main tire almost needs replacement."Solution: "Almost replaced left inside main tire."
Problem: "Test flight OK, except autoland very rough."Solution: "Autoland not installed on this aircraft."
Problem: "The autopilot doesn't."Solution: "It does now."
Problem: "Something loose in cockpit."Solution: "Something tightened in cockpit."
Problem: "Evidence of hydraulic leak on right main landing gear."Solution: "Evidence removed."
Problem: "DME volume unbelievably loud."Solution: "Volume set to more believable level."
Problem: "Dead bugs on windshield."Solution: "Live bugs on order."
Problem: "Autopilot in altitude hold mode produces a 200 fpm descent."Solution: "Cannot reproduce problem on ground."
Problem: "IFF inoperative."Solution: "IFF inoperative in OFF mode."
Problem: "Friction locks cause throttle levers to stick."Solution: "That's what they're there for."
Problem: "Number three engine missing."Solution: "Engine found on right wing after brief search."
--------------------------------
This is allegedly a true story, told by the driver at his first AA meeting, according to the newspaper account.
From Herb Caen's column in the San Francisco Chronicle:
A motorist was unknowingly caught in an automated speed trap that measured his speed using radar and photographed his car. He later received in the mail a ticket for $40, and a photo of his car.
Instead of payment, he sent the police department a photograph of $40.
Several days later, he received a letter from the police department that contained another picture - of handcuffs.
--------------------------------
An oldie but goodie..
Good Luck, Mr Gorsky
When Apollo Mission Astronaut Neil Armstrong first walked on the moon, he not only gave his famous "One small step for man, one giant leap for mankind" statement but followed it by several remarks, usually common traffic between him, & the other astronauts and Mission Control.
Just before he re-entered the lander, however, he made the enigmatic remark, "Good luck Mr.Gorsky."
Many people at NASA thought it was a casual remark concerning some rival Soviet Cosmonaut. However, upon checking, there was no Gorsky in either the Russian or American space programs.
Over the years many people questioned Armstrong as to what the "Good luck Mr. Gorsky" statement meant, but Armstrong always just smiled.
Just a few years ago, (On July 5, 1995, in Tampa Bay, FL) while answering questions following a speech, a reporter brought up the 26 year old question to Armstrong. This time he finally responded.
Mr.Gorsky had finally passed away and so Neil Armstrong felt he could answer the question.
When he was a kid, he was playing baseball with a friend in the backyard. His friend hit a fly ball, which landed in the front of his neighbor's bedroom windows. His neighbors were Mr. & Mrs. Gorsky.
As he leaned down to pick up the ball, young Armstrong heard Mrs.Gorsky shouting at Mr. Gorsky: "Sex! You want sex?! You'll get sex when the kid next door walks on the moon!"
--------------------------------
Police arrested Malcolm Davidson, a 27 year old white male, resident of Wilmington, NC, in a pumpkin patch at 11:38 pm Friday. Davidson will be charged with lewd and lascivious behavior, public indecency, and public intoxication at the County Courthouse on Monday.
The suspect allegedly stated that as he was passing a pumpkin patch, he decided to stop.
"You know, a pumpkin is soft and squishy inside, and there was no one around here for miles. At least I thought there wasn't." He stated in a phone interview from the County Courthouse Jail.
Davidson went on to state that he pulled over to the side of the road, picked out a pumpkin that he felt was appropriate for his purposes, cut a hole in it, and proceeded to satisfy his alleged "need".
"I guess I was just really into it, you know?" he commented with evident embarrassment. In the process, Davidson apparently failed to notice the Wilmington Municipal police car approaching and was unaware of his audience until officer Brenda Taylor approached him.
"It was an unusual situation, that's for sure." said officer Taylor. "I walked up to (Davidson) and he's...just working away at this pumpkin."
Taylor went on to describe what happened when she approached Davidson.
"I just went up and said, "Excuse me sir, but do you realize that you are screwing a pumpkin?"
He got real surprised as you'd expect and then looked me straight in the face and said, "A pumpkin? Damn...is it midnight already?"
----------------------------------
One Smart Redneck!
"Hello, is this the FBI?" "Yes. What do you want?""I'm calling to report about my neighbor Billy Bob Smith! He is hiding marijuana inside his firewood.""Thank you very much for the call, sir."
The next day, the FBI agents descend on Billy Bob's house. They search the shed where the firewood is kept. Using axes, they bust open every piece of wood, but find no marijuana. They swore at Billy Bob and left.
The phone rings at Billy Bob's house."Hey Billy Bob! Did the FBI come?""Yeah!" "Did they chop your firewood?""Yep.".........."Merry Christmas Buddy"
------------------------------
Letter home
(Now at Camp Pendleton, San Diego, Marine Corps Recruit Training)
Dear Ma and Pa:I am well. Hope you are too. Tell Brother Walt and Brother Elmer that the Marine Corps beats working for old man Minch by a mile. Tell them to join up quick before all of the places are filled.I was restless at first because you got to stay in bed till nearly 6 a.m., but I am getting so I like to sleep late.
Tell Walt and Elmer all you do before breakfast is smooth your cot and shine some things. No hogs to slop, feed to pitch, mash to mix, wood to split, fire to lay... practically nothing. Men got to shave but it's not so bad... there's warm water. Breakfast is strong on trimmings like fruit juice, cereal, eggs, bacon, etc., but kind of weak on chops, potatoes, ham, steak, fried eggplant, pie, and other regular food. Tell Walt and Elmer you can always sit by the two city boys that live on coffee. Their food plus yours holds you 'til noon when you get fed again. It's no wonder these city boys can't walk much.
We go on "route marches," which the platoon sergeant says are long walks to harden us. If he thinks so, it's not my place to tell him different. A "route march" is about as far as to our mailbox at home. ]Then the city guys get sore feet and we all ride back in trucks.The country is nice but awful flat. The sergeant is like a school teacher. He nags a lot. The captain is like the school board. Majors and colonels just ride around and frown. They don't bother you none.This next will kill Walt and Elmer with laughing. I keep getting medals for shooting. I don't know why. The bulls-eye is near as big as a chipmunk head and don't move, and it ain't shooting at you like the Higgett boys at home. All you got to do is lie there all comfortable and hit it. You don't even load your own cartridges. They come in boxes.
Then we have what they call hand-to-hand combat training. You get to wrestle with them city boys. I have to be real careful though, they break real easy. It ain't like fighting with that ole bull at home. I'm about the best they got in this except for that Tug Jordan from over in Silver Lake. I only beat him once. He joined up the same time as me, but I'm only 5'6" and 130 pounds and he's 6'8" and near 300 pounds dry.Be sure to tell Walt and Elmer to hurry and join up before other fellers get onto this setup and come stampeding on in.
Your loving daughter,
Alice
---------------------------------
How to install a Redneck wireless security system:
Go to a second-hand store, buy a pair of men's used work boots ... a really big pair. Put them outside your front door on top of a copy of Guns and Ammo magazine.
Put a dog dish beside it ... a really big dish. Leave a note on your front door that says something like this:"Bubba, Big Mike and I have gone to get more ammunition - back in 30 minutes. Don't disturb the pit bulls, they've just been wormed."
---------------
The end y'all.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Friday, April 17, 2009
Don't take the gas, just kick their ass.
Commentary will follow excerpts.
From UPI: "WASHINGTON, April 14 (UPI) -- Gulf Cooperation Council members -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Oman -- are getting ready for what many now assume will be retaliation from Iran following Israeli bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities later this year."
and
From PressTV: "Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Mahdi Safari says the contract to buy Russia's S-300 advance missile system is still on track. "There are no problems with this [S-300] contract," RIA Novosti quoted Safari as saying at the end of his visit to Moscow on Wednesday.
Alexander Fomin, first deputy director of Russia's Federal Military and Technical Cooperation Service declared on Wednesday that there are no S-300 deliveries to Iran, the Interfax news agency reported. "
========================
I have actually been quite puzzled as to why Israel has not attacked Iran yet. I mentioned in a previous post that the S-300 deployment will force an attack on Iran. Israel has an estimated 300-500 atomic bombs (thanks to the French and their breeder reactor that they sold to Israel in the 1950's) which can, in general, only be delivered by aircraft. While any good military develops counter measures to enemy defenses, the Russians have incorporated some counter-counter measures into the S-300 such that any Israeli attack on Iran after the deployment of S-300's in quantity would result in a huge loss of Israeli aircraft.
In addition to needing planes for nuclear weapons delivery, no modern military can survive without air superiority or air supremacy. Israel simply cannot afford to lose a significant portion of it's air force in an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Although the S-300 contracts have been signed, the Russians have yet to begin scheduled delivery of the AA system. The main reason for this is that the Russians know that the Israelis will attack Iran as soon as these systems start showing up in quantity. This would necessitate a Russian response on Israel. While the Russians have been engaging in limited modernization of their military and they intend to upgrade most of their weapons systems, most of their current arsenal is aging and in need of constant maintenance. Despite their rhetoric and, accurate in my opinion, assessment that Obama is weak regardless of his use of force authorization on the Somali pirates, the Russians would not prefer to deal with the U.S. military that would have to respond in the event of an Israeli strike on Iran.
As the first excerpt mentions, all of the GCC members are considering an Israeli attack on Iran as a foregone conclusion. The Russian withholding of the S-300 deliveries will only delay the inevitable. I might also take this opportunity to note that the Chinese will be a bit pissed at Israel as well over an attack on Iran.
So, we know an Israeli attack on Iran is going to happen. We should also know that we will have to respond, and perhaps respond in a big way, militarily. Knowing this, Obama has indicated he wants to cut the defense budget by 50%. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has indicated he is also OK with cutting the F-22 JSF program, possibly leaving us at an extreme disadvantage with out fighter aircraft. Our own arsenal is in need of upgrading and modernization due to the almost constant use of our hardware since the early 90's.
If congress approves the requested cuts in the defense budget and we have to continue to rely on older equipment, then we could be setting ourselves up for some real trouble. We will not just let the Russians and/or the Chinese attack Israel if Israel attacks Iran, but Obama and congress could put us in a pickle if we are not able to field the latest technology, in quantity, to defend our troops.
As a side issue, a 50% reduction in defense spending will really decimate the economies of states that have a heavy presence of the military. Considering the current condition of the economy, a severe chop in defense spending would be an idiotic decision at this point in time.
Although wars have been used to get us out of economic troubles in the past, I think in this case that the potential consequences of an Israeli strike on Iran would be disastrous due to the nations that would be involved and the rapid escalation that would result. On the other hand, Israel simply cannot allow Iran to build up a nuclear weapons stockpile.
Well, the attack will come. We cannot respond with a weakened military.
From UPI: "WASHINGTON, April 14 (UPI) -- Gulf Cooperation Council members -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Oman -- are getting ready for what many now assume will be retaliation from Iran following Israeli bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities later this year."
and
From PressTV: "Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Mahdi Safari says the contract to buy Russia's S-300 advance missile system is still on track. "There are no problems with this [S-300] contract," RIA Novosti quoted Safari as saying at the end of his visit to Moscow on Wednesday.
Alexander Fomin, first deputy director of Russia's Federal Military and Technical Cooperation Service declared on Wednesday that there are no S-300 deliveries to Iran, the Interfax news agency reported. "
========================
I have actually been quite puzzled as to why Israel has not attacked Iran yet. I mentioned in a previous post that the S-300 deployment will force an attack on Iran. Israel has an estimated 300-500 atomic bombs (thanks to the French and their breeder reactor that they sold to Israel in the 1950's) which can, in general, only be delivered by aircraft. While any good military develops counter measures to enemy defenses, the Russians have incorporated some counter-counter measures into the S-300 such that any Israeli attack on Iran after the deployment of S-300's in quantity would result in a huge loss of Israeli aircraft.
In addition to needing planes for nuclear weapons delivery, no modern military can survive without air superiority or air supremacy. Israel simply cannot afford to lose a significant portion of it's air force in an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Although the S-300 contracts have been signed, the Russians have yet to begin scheduled delivery of the AA system. The main reason for this is that the Russians know that the Israelis will attack Iran as soon as these systems start showing up in quantity. This would necessitate a Russian response on Israel. While the Russians have been engaging in limited modernization of their military and they intend to upgrade most of their weapons systems, most of their current arsenal is aging and in need of constant maintenance. Despite their rhetoric and, accurate in my opinion, assessment that Obama is weak regardless of his use of force authorization on the Somali pirates, the Russians would not prefer to deal with the U.S. military that would have to respond in the event of an Israeli strike on Iran.
As the first excerpt mentions, all of the GCC members are considering an Israeli attack on Iran as a foregone conclusion. The Russian withholding of the S-300 deliveries will only delay the inevitable. I might also take this opportunity to note that the Chinese will be a bit pissed at Israel as well over an attack on Iran.
So, we know an Israeli attack on Iran is going to happen. We should also know that we will have to respond, and perhaps respond in a big way, militarily. Knowing this, Obama has indicated he wants to cut the defense budget by 50%. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has indicated he is also OK with cutting the F-22 JSF program, possibly leaving us at an extreme disadvantage with out fighter aircraft. Our own arsenal is in need of upgrading and modernization due to the almost constant use of our hardware since the early 90's.
If congress approves the requested cuts in the defense budget and we have to continue to rely on older equipment, then we could be setting ourselves up for some real trouble. We will not just let the Russians and/or the Chinese attack Israel if Israel attacks Iran, but Obama and congress could put us in a pickle if we are not able to field the latest technology, in quantity, to defend our troops.
As a side issue, a 50% reduction in defense spending will really decimate the economies of states that have a heavy presence of the military. Considering the current condition of the economy, a severe chop in defense spending would be an idiotic decision at this point in time.
Although wars have been used to get us out of economic troubles in the past, I think in this case that the potential consequences of an Israeli strike on Iran would be disastrous due to the nations that would be involved and the rapid escalation that would result. On the other hand, Israel simply cannot allow Iran to build up a nuclear weapons stockpile.
Well, the attack will come. We cannot respond with a weakened military.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Zachary Taylor National Cemetery
While visiting relatives over the Easter weekend, I stumbled across a little gem of a national cemetery. The Zachary Taylor National Cemetery is located off Brownsboro Road in Louisville, Kentucky. If you have the opportunity to visit that area, the cemetery is well worth a stop.
The United States maintains 112 national cemeteries and this is certainly one of the smaller ones. In the 1920's the Taylor family led an effort to turn the family burial grounds into a national cemetery. In addition to the Taylor family, veterans from the Spanish-American War forward are interred there.
Zachary Taylor's presidential term lasted from March 4, 1849 until his death on July 9, 1850. Although the official cause of death was gastroenteritis, there was some speculation that he had been poisoned. In fact, he was exhumed in 1991 and additional tests were performed on his remains in a vain effort to detect if he had been poisoned.
Taylor had a long and distinguished military career (he was known as "Old Rough and Ready") serving in the War of 1812, the Black Hawk War (1832), the Second Seminole War (1835-1842) and the Mexican-American War. He was a member of the Whig Party, which was formed in opposition to the Jacksonian Democrats, but was considered rather indifferent to politics.
Zachary Taylor was also a southern slave owner, but he did oppose the expansion of slavery.
The photo below is an 1840's
Daguerreotype of Taylor in uniform.
The United States maintains 112 national cemeteries and this is certainly one of the smaller ones. In the 1920's the Taylor family led an effort to turn the family burial grounds into a national cemetery. In addition to the Taylor family, veterans from the Spanish-American War forward are interred there.
Zachary Taylor's presidential term lasted from March 4, 1849 until his death on July 9, 1850. Although the official cause of death was gastroenteritis, there was some speculation that he had been poisoned. In fact, he was exhumed in 1991 and additional tests were performed on his remains in a vain effort to detect if he had been poisoned.
Taylor had a long and distinguished military career (he was known as "Old Rough and Ready") serving in the War of 1812, the Black Hawk War (1832), the Second Seminole War (1835-1842) and the Mexican-American War. He was a member of the Whig Party, which was formed in opposition to the Jacksonian Democrats, but was considered rather indifferent to politics.
Zachary Taylor was also a southern slave owner, but he did oppose the expansion of slavery.
The photo below is an 1840's
Daguerreotype of Taylor in uniform.
Below are photographs of the cemetery, including the crypt that houses Taylor's remains.
The below photo is of an aircrew that was killed on August 21, 1945 six days after Japan's formal surrender announcement.
The below photo is of an aircrew that was killed on August 21, 1945 six days after Japan's formal surrender announcement.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
It's the economy, stupid!!
Reprinted below is a March 9, 2009 post from my blogspot site dealing with my thoughts on the economic situation, though it concentrates on the housing fiasco. I had indicated my belief that the real estate market will not hit bottom until 2012. It may be even longer since the Government is permitting the use of automated valuation models and real estate agent broker price opinions (gee, no conflict of interest there) over actual appraisals performed by an independent third party for many types of property valuations now. This, along with the AMC mandate, will continue to guarantee inaccurate (fradulent) valuations of real estate.
I was listening to El Rushbo the other day (he may be an entertainer, but he's no economist) when he mentioned that things aren't all that bad since we still have over 91% of the population employed. Yes, however, you do not need an actual majority of the population out of work to destroy an economy. During the Great Depression an estimated 25%-30% of the population was unemployed. Thus, 70% of the depression era population was employed. Seven out of 10 people still had jobs and yet we had a catastrophe in economic terms. What Rush and many economists fail to figure is the level of unemployment that will trigger an automatic unemployment landslide.
Typically, U.S. unemployment runs between 5% and 6%. Let's use 6% as our baseline. Retail business generally operates on some fairly tight margins due to factors such as the actual operating costs to run a legitimate business plus the number of competitors, who can affect the gross profit margin as well. Another factor in setting a retail price is the number of customers that frequent the establishment, which also determines what you need to charge for a good or service to keep the doors open........all of this is common sense type stuff.
So, after all is said and done you end up with a net profit of 10%. If you increase your gross profit you will not be competitive. What happens if you lose 5% of your customers? You might be able to get by with a small price increase and you may do some belt tightening so you can still remain in business, but then you lose another 5% of your customers........what happens to your net profit? (I know a 10% customer loss may not translate to a 10% net profit loss, but it's just for example purposes)
Unemployment is currently pushing 9%, which is 3% over our 6% baseline. Considering that 10% of the U.S. is already on food stamps and that the Gov. unemployment rates are low based on how they are calculated, I would estimate actual unemployment at around 12% with another 3% underemployed. At 12% unemployment you are now 6% over the baseline. Factor in underemployment, at say an additional equivalent of 1.5% unemployment, and you are now 7.5% over the baseline.
Again, considering the tight margins that many retail businesses operate on, an additional 2% unemployment rate (6 million more folks out of work) increase could start an avalanche of business closures. Considering that we are now averaging 700,000/month losing their jobs, we could be 9 months away from an economic catastrophe. It does not matter what the stock market does, as long as folks keep losing their jobs. Many states are maxed out on their continued ability to pay unemployment benefits. A number of states are now fudging property values, keeping them artificially high by excluding distressed property sales in areas where those sales ARE the market value. Once the public figures out they have been getting screwed on their assessed values and demands a reduction in their assessed values, the tax revenues will further decrease.
Let's also remember that the top 20% of income earners pay about 80% of the taxes and, unlike the depression, most of the current job losses have been in the higher paying sectors, i.e. the folks losing their jobs (finance, construction, high paid assembly line work, real estate, etc) are the ones who have been paying taxes. The minimum wage earners CANNOT make up the revenue shortfall. You can raise taxes on the "rich", but they can afford to move to a lower tax state or area. (Ask Gov. Paterson about that one).
The bottom line is that it does not take a really significant amount of job loss to cripple an economy. If things do not turn around almost immediately on the job front, we are in big trouble.
-------------------------------
Monday, March 9, 2009
So, how bad will the economic situation get?
How bad will the economy get? There are differing opinions on this, but the facts speak for themselves. The general consensus is that the downward economic spiral began with the sub prime lending mess. In a nut shell, this was precipitated by groups such as ACORN, with the backing of some notable democrats, Barney Frank et al, pressuring congress to get banks to lend money to anyone who could fog a mirror. This led to the development and widespread use of exotic loan products such as Option ARM loans, pick-a-pay loans, NINJA loans (No Job, No Income or Assets) and so on. These loans could be bundled and sold via products such as MBS/mortgage backed securities. Credit rating agencies were complicit in this as well by rating these junk mortgage products as AAA rated or somewhere thereabouts. Since this freed up lending institutions to sell their (bad) paper, there was ever greater incentive to fund more and more of these loans.
Having a real estate appraisal background I can tell you many appraisers saw this coming two years before most everyone else. One of the reasons for this was that mortgage brokers work on commission and banks were also eager to sell their paper. One recent survey indicated that 90% of appraisers felt pressured to "make the deal work." The actual number was more like 99.9%. If an appraiser refused to "hit the number" the broker or LO needed to make the deal work (i.e. appraise the house high enough to payoff the house, which had declined in value, the new SUV's, the flat screen TV's and other toys) then the appraiser was blacklisted and these blacklists were shared with other lenders, so the honest ethical appraiser was driven out of business while the number hitting scumbag was thriving. Many banks made use of AMC's which are Appraisal Management Companies. Until the law changed, AMC's were owned by the banks (there is still a tight relationship between the banks and AMC's since, if the AMC does not play ball with the appraisal values the bank can stop using them.) who would skim up to 75% of the appraisal fee. Driving down the price paid to the independent fee appraiser also helped put the honest appraisers out of work. The AMC's would only assign work to the appraisers who could hit the number. They would also lower the pay and demand faster turn times so the appraisals were decreasing in quality and the only appraisers who were "approved" to work for the AMC's were the unethical appraiser. The HVCC/Home Valuation Code of Conduct, which is pending, mandates use of AMC's which will ensure the housing crisis will continue in perpetuity. Many lenders are already mandating use of AMC's in anticipation of the HVCC passage.
Now, I have already mentioned that a big problem was the government mandating that banks loan to anyone with a pulse. What if you were an honest bank that did not want to do this? Then you engaged in Red Lining. Red Lining is illegal discrimination, so banks that did not want to lend to risky borrowers would flag certain zip codes/areas and instruct their underwriters to kill the appraisal so the deal would not fly. The result of this was that rehabbers and certain homeowners were not able to conduct legitimate revitalization in some inner city neighborhoods.So, where is the housing situation at today? Currently banks are sitting on approximately 3 million foreclosed homes that have not been put on the market. While most people think the housing crisis is ending, keep in mind that the Alt-A (people with b,c,d, credit) defaults are just starting to hit and the conservative estimate is that there will be around 1.8 million Alt-A defaults. So 3 million homes plus 1.8 million homes = 4.8 million foreclosures that have yet to hit the market and further depress prices. Add to this 2 million unemployed in 2008 and 1.3 million unemployed so far in 2009 (which could end up being another 5 million unemployed by the end of 2009) and housing prices will not hit bottom for at least 3 years, or longer. Most people are not aware of just how bad the housing situation is due to the National Association of Realtor's propaganda division, which would make even Joseph Goebbels envious.We also tend to localize the economy to our own borders and not think about the situation in the rest of the world. It's as bad in Europe and Asia as it is in America.
We can't forget that all of the Obama bailouts WILL result in hyperinflation to equal Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe. Even before the bailouts, if everyone who held U.S. dollars cashed them in, they would only get 10 cents on the dollar in hard assets. Today it would be more like 3 cents on the dollar. I am expecting hyperinflation as early as 6 months and no later than 12 months. The stock market may be getting an upward bounce today, but I can see the DJIA at 5000 or 4000 shortly.As to actual unemployment, currently 31 million people are on food stamps. This is a bit over 10% of the U.S. population. The latest government unemployment figures show 8% unemployment, but as 12% of mortgages are in default or late pay status, this would indicate a true unemployment rate of at least 10%-13%. This does not include underemployment where, say, an engineer gets terminated and can only find work at a fast food joint. Consider that a majority of job losses have been occurring in the financial sector, the construction sector, the real estate sector and the high paying manufacturing sector. Remember that the top 20% of income earners pay about 80% of the taxes. Now, it is not an even sliding scale, but with the top 10% of the top 20% of income earners out of work, the result is a loss of up to 30% or so of federal, state and local tax revenue. Obama's plan may call for tax increases, but there will be no one to pay them.The retail sector will start losing more big retailers by mid-year and a 30% vacancy rate on commercial property is expected soon as well. The real estate trusts have been taking a hit. Worldwide freight shipments are down as is worldwide manufacturing. China is seeing a big increase in the number of unemployed (remember there are 1.3 billion Chinese, so a 10% unemployment rate over there puts 130 million out of work) as is much of Europe.For the first time since the Civil War, we could see Americans starving to death. This is not an exaggeration or scare tactic. An objective look at the facts can lead to no other conclusion. Folks need to get into a survival frame of mind.
I was listening to El Rushbo the other day (he may be an entertainer, but he's no economist) when he mentioned that things aren't all that bad since we still have over 91% of the population employed. Yes, however, you do not need an actual majority of the population out of work to destroy an economy. During the Great Depression an estimated 25%-30% of the population was unemployed. Thus, 70% of the depression era population was employed. Seven out of 10 people still had jobs and yet we had a catastrophe in economic terms. What Rush and many economists fail to figure is the level of unemployment that will trigger an automatic unemployment landslide.
Typically, U.S. unemployment runs between 5% and 6%. Let's use 6% as our baseline. Retail business generally operates on some fairly tight margins due to factors such as the actual operating costs to run a legitimate business plus the number of competitors, who can affect the gross profit margin as well. Another factor in setting a retail price is the number of customers that frequent the establishment, which also determines what you need to charge for a good or service to keep the doors open........all of this is common sense type stuff.
So, after all is said and done you end up with a net profit of 10%. If you increase your gross profit you will not be competitive. What happens if you lose 5% of your customers? You might be able to get by with a small price increase and you may do some belt tightening so you can still remain in business, but then you lose another 5% of your customers........what happens to your net profit? (I know a 10% customer loss may not translate to a 10% net profit loss, but it's just for example purposes)
Unemployment is currently pushing 9%, which is 3% over our 6% baseline. Considering that 10% of the U.S. is already on food stamps and that the Gov. unemployment rates are low based on how they are calculated, I would estimate actual unemployment at around 12% with another 3% underemployed. At 12% unemployment you are now 6% over the baseline. Factor in underemployment, at say an additional equivalent of 1.5% unemployment, and you are now 7.5% over the baseline.
Again, considering the tight margins that many retail businesses operate on, an additional 2% unemployment rate (6 million more folks out of work) increase could start an avalanche of business closures. Considering that we are now averaging 700,000/month losing their jobs, we could be 9 months away from an economic catastrophe. It does not matter what the stock market does, as long as folks keep losing their jobs. Many states are maxed out on their continued ability to pay unemployment benefits. A number of states are now fudging property values, keeping them artificially high by excluding distressed property sales in areas where those sales ARE the market value. Once the public figures out they have been getting screwed on their assessed values and demands a reduction in their assessed values, the tax revenues will further decrease.
Let's also remember that the top 20% of income earners pay about 80% of the taxes and, unlike the depression, most of the current job losses have been in the higher paying sectors, i.e. the folks losing their jobs (finance, construction, high paid assembly line work, real estate, etc) are the ones who have been paying taxes. The minimum wage earners CANNOT make up the revenue shortfall. You can raise taxes on the "rich", but they can afford to move to a lower tax state or area. (Ask Gov. Paterson about that one).
The bottom line is that it does not take a really significant amount of job loss to cripple an economy. If things do not turn around almost immediately on the job front, we are in big trouble.
-------------------------------
Monday, March 9, 2009
So, how bad will the economic situation get?
How bad will the economy get? There are differing opinions on this, but the facts speak for themselves. The general consensus is that the downward economic spiral began with the sub prime lending mess. In a nut shell, this was precipitated by groups such as ACORN, with the backing of some notable democrats, Barney Frank et al, pressuring congress to get banks to lend money to anyone who could fog a mirror. This led to the development and widespread use of exotic loan products such as Option ARM loans, pick-a-pay loans, NINJA loans (No Job, No Income or Assets) and so on. These loans could be bundled and sold via products such as MBS/mortgage backed securities. Credit rating agencies were complicit in this as well by rating these junk mortgage products as AAA rated or somewhere thereabouts. Since this freed up lending institutions to sell their (bad) paper, there was ever greater incentive to fund more and more of these loans.
Having a real estate appraisal background I can tell you many appraisers saw this coming two years before most everyone else. One of the reasons for this was that mortgage brokers work on commission and banks were also eager to sell their paper. One recent survey indicated that 90% of appraisers felt pressured to "make the deal work." The actual number was more like 99.9%. If an appraiser refused to "hit the number" the broker or LO needed to make the deal work (i.e. appraise the house high enough to payoff the house, which had declined in value, the new SUV's, the flat screen TV's and other toys) then the appraiser was blacklisted and these blacklists were shared with other lenders, so the honest ethical appraiser was driven out of business while the number hitting scumbag was thriving. Many banks made use of AMC's which are Appraisal Management Companies. Until the law changed, AMC's were owned by the banks (there is still a tight relationship between the banks and AMC's since, if the AMC does not play ball with the appraisal values the bank can stop using them.) who would skim up to 75% of the appraisal fee. Driving down the price paid to the independent fee appraiser also helped put the honest appraisers out of work. The AMC's would only assign work to the appraisers who could hit the number. They would also lower the pay and demand faster turn times so the appraisals were decreasing in quality and the only appraisers who were "approved" to work for the AMC's were the unethical appraiser. The HVCC/Home Valuation Code of Conduct, which is pending, mandates use of AMC's which will ensure the housing crisis will continue in perpetuity. Many lenders are already mandating use of AMC's in anticipation of the HVCC passage.
Now, I have already mentioned that a big problem was the government mandating that banks loan to anyone with a pulse. What if you were an honest bank that did not want to do this? Then you engaged in Red Lining. Red Lining is illegal discrimination, so banks that did not want to lend to risky borrowers would flag certain zip codes/areas and instruct their underwriters to kill the appraisal so the deal would not fly. The result of this was that rehabbers and certain homeowners were not able to conduct legitimate revitalization in some inner city neighborhoods.So, where is the housing situation at today? Currently banks are sitting on approximately 3 million foreclosed homes that have not been put on the market. While most people think the housing crisis is ending, keep in mind that the Alt-A (people with b,c,d, credit) defaults are just starting to hit and the conservative estimate is that there will be around 1.8 million Alt-A defaults. So 3 million homes plus 1.8 million homes = 4.8 million foreclosures that have yet to hit the market and further depress prices. Add to this 2 million unemployed in 2008 and 1.3 million unemployed so far in 2009 (which could end up being another 5 million unemployed by the end of 2009) and housing prices will not hit bottom for at least 3 years, or longer. Most people are not aware of just how bad the housing situation is due to the National Association of Realtor's propaganda division, which would make even Joseph Goebbels envious.We also tend to localize the economy to our own borders and not think about the situation in the rest of the world. It's as bad in Europe and Asia as it is in America.
We can't forget that all of the Obama bailouts WILL result in hyperinflation to equal Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe. Even before the bailouts, if everyone who held U.S. dollars cashed them in, they would only get 10 cents on the dollar in hard assets. Today it would be more like 3 cents on the dollar. I am expecting hyperinflation as early as 6 months and no later than 12 months. The stock market may be getting an upward bounce today, but I can see the DJIA at 5000 or 4000 shortly.As to actual unemployment, currently 31 million people are on food stamps. This is a bit over 10% of the U.S. population. The latest government unemployment figures show 8% unemployment, but as 12% of mortgages are in default or late pay status, this would indicate a true unemployment rate of at least 10%-13%. This does not include underemployment where, say, an engineer gets terminated and can only find work at a fast food joint. Consider that a majority of job losses have been occurring in the financial sector, the construction sector, the real estate sector and the high paying manufacturing sector. Remember that the top 20% of income earners pay about 80% of the taxes. Now, it is not an even sliding scale, but with the top 10% of the top 20% of income earners out of work, the result is a loss of up to 30% or so of federal, state and local tax revenue. Obama's plan may call for tax increases, but there will be no one to pay them.The retail sector will start losing more big retailers by mid-year and a 30% vacancy rate on commercial property is expected soon as well. The real estate trusts have been taking a hit. Worldwide freight shipments are down as is worldwide manufacturing. China is seeing a big increase in the number of unemployed (remember there are 1.3 billion Chinese, so a 10% unemployment rate over there puts 130 million out of work) as is much of Europe.For the first time since the Civil War, we could see Americans starving to death. This is not an exaggeration or scare tactic. An objective look at the facts can lead to no other conclusion. Folks need to get into a survival frame of mind.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
You want fries with that?
This is an off topic general rant about the lack of common sense and the dumbing down of America.
Reading about the latest rash of shootings, and thinking about some past incidents, my thoughts are "what ever happened to common sense, or, what we used to call country common sense?" Since when does a kid who's getting picked on think it's OK to go to the family gun safe, yank out a rifle and some ammo and go shoot up his school? Why does someone who lost their job or got fired think it's OK to grab a pistol and ammo and go shoot up their former workplace?
Irrespective of any political or economic influences, it is apparent today that a lot of folks lack basic common sense. I spent a good number of years in retail sales and management and the idiocy level of even non-entry level employees was discouraging. As for the dumbing down of America, when was the last time you had a cashier count your change back to you? Have you ever had a situation where you had a tab of, say, $3.10 and you handed the cashier a $5 bill and a dime and got a deer in the headlights stare? I can remember seeing job applications where the applicant could barely read or write, we had applicants that could not tell time on an open faced clock.......had to be digital.
Just look at some of the recent headlines. A guy kills his 5 kids and himself to get back at his wife. The guy was a grown adult but had an extremely juvenile thought process (kind of like the juvenile thought process involved with giving the Queen of England an ipod or the British PM some CD's, which weren't even compatible with the European standard.--you Bush haters can feel free to substitute a "W" gaffe here). This seems to be getting more and more common these days.
Customer service? What's that. Every medium to large company today uses an automated phone system. When you finally get a human it's usually someone located well outside of the U.S. who has a minimal command of English (OK, in fairness I'll include "W" in this category). Another annoying thing about customer service is the lack of ability to negotiate with a human when you finally get one. For example, Customer: " I paid my bill online but it did not hit until 1pm on the due date and your company's stated cutoff time is noon...as it was only an hour late can you waive the $36 late fee?" CSR Supervisor: "Our company policy says it's due at noon." Customer: " I've been a customer of your company for 20 years and have never been late on a payment, as a courtesy how about waiving the late fee?" CSR Supervisor: "Sorry our policy is that the payment is due by noon and you were an hour late.......have a nice day."
Should I even discuss fast food workers? Sure. Remember the story of that little girl in Florida, 12 year old Jasmine Roberts, who for her science fair project, decided to measure the fecal bacteria count in fast food ice dispensers and fast food toilets and it turned out that there was more fecal bacteria in the ice than there was in the toilet water because the workers did not have common sense enough to wash their hands after taking a crap?
Although I am aware of some of the major problems we face today, some of the behavior of people just seems to defy explanation. I am especially appalled, as I have previously stated, at the total lack of basic common sense a lot of folks are displaying today. The lack of education can be cured, but the lack of common sense.....I just do not know, maybe it's something in the water.
Reading about the latest rash of shootings, and thinking about some past incidents, my thoughts are "what ever happened to common sense, or, what we used to call country common sense?" Since when does a kid who's getting picked on think it's OK to go to the family gun safe, yank out a rifle and some ammo and go shoot up his school? Why does someone who lost their job or got fired think it's OK to grab a pistol and ammo and go shoot up their former workplace?
Irrespective of any political or economic influences, it is apparent today that a lot of folks lack basic common sense. I spent a good number of years in retail sales and management and the idiocy level of even non-entry level employees was discouraging. As for the dumbing down of America, when was the last time you had a cashier count your change back to you? Have you ever had a situation where you had a tab of, say, $3.10 and you handed the cashier a $5 bill and a dime and got a deer in the headlights stare? I can remember seeing job applications where the applicant could barely read or write, we had applicants that could not tell time on an open faced clock.......had to be digital.
Just look at some of the recent headlines. A guy kills his 5 kids and himself to get back at his wife. The guy was a grown adult but had an extremely juvenile thought process (kind of like the juvenile thought process involved with giving the Queen of England an ipod or the British PM some CD's, which weren't even compatible with the European standard.--you Bush haters can feel free to substitute a "W" gaffe here). This seems to be getting more and more common these days.
Customer service? What's that. Every medium to large company today uses an automated phone system. When you finally get a human it's usually someone located well outside of the U.S. who has a minimal command of English (OK, in fairness I'll include "W" in this category). Another annoying thing about customer service is the lack of ability to negotiate with a human when you finally get one. For example, Customer: " I paid my bill online but it did not hit until 1pm on the due date and your company's stated cutoff time is noon...as it was only an hour late can you waive the $36 late fee?" CSR Supervisor: "Our company policy says it's due at noon." Customer: " I've been a customer of your company for 20 years and have never been late on a payment, as a courtesy how about waiving the late fee?" CSR Supervisor: "Sorry our policy is that the payment is due by noon and you were an hour late.......have a nice day."
Should I even discuss fast food workers? Sure. Remember the story of that little girl in Florida, 12 year old Jasmine Roberts, who for her science fair project, decided to measure the fecal bacteria count in fast food ice dispensers and fast food toilets and it turned out that there was more fecal bacteria in the ice than there was in the toilet water because the workers did not have common sense enough to wash their hands after taking a crap?
Although I am aware of some of the major problems we face today, some of the behavior of people just seems to defy explanation. I am especially appalled, as I have previously stated, at the total lack of basic common sense a lot of folks are displaying today. The lack of education can be cured, but the lack of common sense.....I just do not know, maybe it's something in the water.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Martin Luther King, Jr. we hardly knew ye.
Martin Luther King, Jr was shot to death on April 4th, 1968 while standing on the balcony of his hotel room. (Lorraine Motel, Room 306). James Earl Ray was subsequently arrested and convicted of King's murder despite the fact that the rifle recovered by the police was subjected to two different ballistics tests and both determined that the rifle recovered was not the rifle used in the assassination. Ray also recanted his confession and it has now been generally accepted that someone else actually killed King.
Now, King's contribution to the civil rights movement should be well known. He helped found the Southern Christian Leadership Conference, was involved with the Montgomery Bus boycott, the Birmingham campaign to promote civil rights, participated in numerous marches (Selma, etc), gave several significant speeches, (the most notable was his 1963 "I have a Dream" speech) and in 1964 received the Nobel Prize for his efforts at ending racial discrimination.
A not too shabby list of accomplishments. I do not think it is an exaggeration to say that without the efforts and legacy of MLK, Jr. that Obama would not have been elected.
The personal side of Martin Luther King, Jr. is worth looking at as well. There are two main negatives in his personal life; his plagiarism and his adultery.
I'm sure most of the over 40 crowd was aware that J. Edgar Hoover and his Gestapo were keeping a close eye on MLK, Jr.. I'm also sure most older people remember that the FBI recorded MLK, Jr. having a boink session with two white women while he was married. Now, adultery is a really, really bad sin, but men being men, I kind of understand (but can't condone) his desire for a little variety and can also understand that if all the ice cream you get is chocolate, you might want to try some vanilla. Unfortunately, it turns out that King was a serial adulterer.
From a January, 2009 article on King by Benjamin Ryan: "King lived a double life. During the day, he would speak to large crowds, quoting Scripture and invoking God’s will, and at night he frequently had sex with women from the audience. “King’s habits of sexual adventure had been well established by the time he was married,” says Michael Eric Dyson of Georgetown University, a King admirer. He notes that King often “told lewd jokes,” “shared women with friends,” and was “sexually reckless.” According to King biographer Taylor Branch, during a long party on the night of January 6 and 7, 1964, an FBI bugging device recorded King’s “distinctive voice ring out above others with pulsating abandon, saying, “˜I’m f***ing for God!’”
Sex with single and married women continued after King married, and on the night before his death, King had two adulterous trysts. His first rendezvous was at a woman’s house, the second in a hotel room. The source for this was his best friend and second-in-command, Ralph Abernathy, who noted that the second woman was “a member of the Kentucky legislature,” now known to be Georgia Davis Powers.
Abernathy went on to say that a third woman was also looking for King that same night, but found his bed empty. She knew his habits and was angry when they met later that morning. In response, writes Abernathy, King “lost his temper” and “knocked her across the bed… . She leapt up to fight back, and for a moment they were engaged in a full-blown fight, with [King] clearly winning.” A few hours later, King ate lunch with Abernathy and discussed the importance of nonviolence for their movement."
----------------------
Not too cool a thing for a minister to be doing. Many people will excuse this behavior and justify it in light of all the good he did. I think this is a serious character flaw though. Most people can understand someone having a weak moment, but I'd almost have to conclude that MLK, Jr. was a sex addict. Again, not a good problem for a minister to have.
His plagiarism was also a serious flaw. I dare say that everyone whose ever been in college has lifted a sentence or two and dropped it in a report now and again, but this was not the case with King.
Again, from the Ryan article: "An extensive project started at Stanford University in 1984 to publish all of King’s papers tracked down the original sources for these early papers and concluded that his academic writings are “tragically flawed by numerous instances of plagiarism.” Journalist Theodore Pappas, who has also reviewed the collection, found one paper showing “verbatim theft” in 20 of a total of 24 paragraphs. He writes:
“King’s plagiarisms are easy to detect because their style rises above the level of his pedestrian student prose. In general, if the sentences are eloquent, witty, insightful, or pithy, or contain allusions, analogies, metaphors, or similes, it is safe to assume that the section has been purloined.”King also plagiarized himself, recycling old term papers as new ones. Some of his professors complained about sloppy references, but they seem to have had no idea how extensively he was stealing material, and his habits were well established by the time he entered the PhD program at Boston University. King plagiarized one-third of his 343-page dissertation, the book-length project required to earn a PhD, leading some to say he should be stripped of his doctoral degree. "
---------------------
I may be a hardass, but I think King SHOULD be stripped of his PhD. I also can understand why some, notably liberals, can give King a pass for the adultery, but can't for the life of me figure out how liberal academia and others can give him a pass on the plagiarism. As often as you hear liberals howl about about how hard they had to study and all the crap they have to put up with to get their PhD's and then they gingerly give King a pass.
I have to chuckle every time I pass a public school that has been named after King. Both my parents were educators, back when that actually meant "to educate' as opposed "to indoctrinate", and, as someone who had to work their butt off to get a four year degree, I personally find King's plagiarism more offensive than his adultery, although the adultery is the greater sin.
I think we can certainly note and appreciate Martin Luther King's contribution to the civil rights movement, but he was a scumbag in his personal life. (and I say that as a reformed scumbag, though I wasn't as bad as he was, however, sins are sins)
Now, King's contribution to the civil rights movement should be well known. He helped found the Southern Christian Leadership Conference, was involved with the Montgomery Bus boycott, the Birmingham campaign to promote civil rights, participated in numerous marches (Selma, etc), gave several significant speeches, (the most notable was his 1963 "I have a Dream" speech) and in 1964 received the Nobel Prize for his efforts at ending racial discrimination.
A not too shabby list of accomplishments. I do not think it is an exaggeration to say that without the efforts and legacy of MLK, Jr. that Obama would not have been elected.
The personal side of Martin Luther King, Jr. is worth looking at as well. There are two main negatives in his personal life; his plagiarism and his adultery.
I'm sure most of the over 40 crowd was aware that J. Edgar Hoover and his Gestapo were keeping a close eye on MLK, Jr.. I'm also sure most older people remember that the FBI recorded MLK, Jr. having a boink session with two white women while he was married. Now, adultery is a really, really bad sin, but men being men, I kind of understand (but can't condone) his desire for a little variety and can also understand that if all the ice cream you get is chocolate, you might want to try some vanilla. Unfortunately, it turns out that King was a serial adulterer.
From a January, 2009 article on King by Benjamin Ryan: "King lived a double life. During the day, he would speak to large crowds, quoting Scripture and invoking God’s will, and at night he frequently had sex with women from the audience. “King’s habits of sexual adventure had been well established by the time he was married,” says Michael Eric Dyson of Georgetown University, a King admirer. He notes that King often “told lewd jokes,” “shared women with friends,” and was “sexually reckless.” According to King biographer Taylor Branch, during a long party on the night of January 6 and 7, 1964, an FBI bugging device recorded King’s “distinctive voice ring out above others with pulsating abandon, saying, “˜I’m f***ing for God!’”
Sex with single and married women continued after King married, and on the night before his death, King had two adulterous trysts. His first rendezvous was at a woman’s house, the second in a hotel room. The source for this was his best friend and second-in-command, Ralph Abernathy, who noted that the second woman was “a member of the Kentucky legislature,” now known to be Georgia Davis Powers.
Abernathy went on to say that a third woman was also looking for King that same night, but found his bed empty. She knew his habits and was angry when they met later that morning. In response, writes Abernathy, King “lost his temper” and “knocked her across the bed… . She leapt up to fight back, and for a moment they were engaged in a full-blown fight, with [King] clearly winning.” A few hours later, King ate lunch with Abernathy and discussed the importance of nonviolence for their movement."
----------------------
Not too cool a thing for a minister to be doing. Many people will excuse this behavior and justify it in light of all the good he did. I think this is a serious character flaw though. Most people can understand someone having a weak moment, but I'd almost have to conclude that MLK, Jr. was a sex addict. Again, not a good problem for a minister to have.
His plagiarism was also a serious flaw. I dare say that everyone whose ever been in college has lifted a sentence or two and dropped it in a report now and again, but this was not the case with King.
Again, from the Ryan article: "An extensive project started at Stanford University in 1984 to publish all of King’s papers tracked down the original sources for these early papers and concluded that his academic writings are “tragically flawed by numerous instances of plagiarism.” Journalist Theodore Pappas, who has also reviewed the collection, found one paper showing “verbatim theft” in 20 of a total of 24 paragraphs. He writes:
“King’s plagiarisms are easy to detect because their style rises above the level of his pedestrian student prose. In general, if the sentences are eloquent, witty, insightful, or pithy, or contain allusions, analogies, metaphors, or similes, it is safe to assume that the section has been purloined.”King also plagiarized himself, recycling old term papers as new ones. Some of his professors complained about sloppy references, but they seem to have had no idea how extensively he was stealing material, and his habits were well established by the time he entered the PhD program at Boston University. King plagiarized one-third of his 343-page dissertation, the book-length project required to earn a PhD, leading some to say he should be stripped of his doctoral degree. "
---------------------
I may be a hardass, but I think King SHOULD be stripped of his PhD. I also can understand why some, notably liberals, can give King a pass for the adultery, but can't for the life of me figure out how liberal academia and others can give him a pass on the plagiarism. As often as you hear liberals howl about about how hard they had to study and all the crap they have to put up with to get their PhD's and then they gingerly give King a pass.
I have to chuckle every time I pass a public school that has been named after King. Both my parents were educators, back when that actually meant "to educate' as opposed "to indoctrinate", and, as someone who had to work their butt off to get a four year degree, I personally find King's plagiarism more offensive than his adultery, although the adultery is the greater sin.
I think we can certainly note and appreciate Martin Luther King's contribution to the civil rights movement, but he was a scumbag in his personal life. (and I say that as a reformed scumbag, though I wasn't as bad as he was, however, sins are sins)
Friday, April 3, 2009
Is abortion murder?
From the Book of Exodus chapter 20 verse 13 we get the commandment "Thou shall not kill". In looking at the earliest translations from the Dead Sea Scrolls and the Nash Papyrus we see that the commandment is "Thou shalt not do murder". Apparently, there are seven Hebrew words for killing, but the Hebrew word רצח (new Hebrew-I could not find a snippet of the original text to paste) as used in the commandment means murder.
John 3:16 "For God so loved the world that he gave his only Son, that whoever believes in him should not perish but have eternal life." and from Mark 9:47-48 "And if your eye causes you to sin, tear it out. It is better for you to enter the kingdom of God with one eye than with two eyes to be thrown into hell, where the worm does not die and the fire is not quenched."
On the one hand we have the commandment "Thou shalt not kill" and on the other hand we have numerous (I've only included a couple) references to the soul being eternal, either in heaven or hell.
If your soul is eternal how can you murder someone? Our physical bodies are merely containers for our souls. If you murder the body the soul lives on, so is abortion really murder? Has anyone ever really been killed or have we merely destroyed the temporary container furnished for our soul?
Since our souls are eternal, the commandment refers to our physical bodies. The problem with murder, including abortion, is that it interferes with God's plan for us. From Jeremiah 1:4-5 "Now the word of the Lord came to me saying, "Before I formed you in the womb I knew you, and before you were born I consecrated you; I appointed you a prophet to the nations." As kind of an aside, women who had near death experiences that also had abortions reported that, as they were having their lives reviewed, they were shown by God what would have happened to their children if they had not been aborted..........."Before I formed you in the womb I knew you."
(This apparently had a profound effect on these women)
When we murder someone we do not just eliminate the container which carries their soul, we interfere with God's plan for us and this is what warrants the punishment. How arrogant and selfish of us to think we can change what God has planned for us. Is there a worse abomination than to think we know better than God? Can one actually fathom the punishment that awaits a woman, entrusted by God to incubate and nurture our physical bodies, who selfishly or out of complete ignorance chooses to alter God's plan for that soul?
Abortion is murder.........in the sense that the physical container that was to be made for that specific soul has been destroyed, but the hard truth is much, much worse. Abortion is humanities feeble attempt at being superior to God by thinking we can subvert the will of God.
(Edited to add that there are passages in scripture that permit the state to execute criminals and to deal with evil doers by execution/elimination----these are necessary punishments as opposed to the shedding of innocent blood.)
John 3:16 "For God so loved the world that he gave his only Son, that whoever believes in him should not perish but have eternal life." and from Mark 9:47-48 "And if your eye causes you to sin, tear it out. It is better for you to enter the kingdom of God with one eye than with two eyes to be thrown into hell, where the worm does not die and the fire is not quenched."
On the one hand we have the commandment "Thou shalt not kill" and on the other hand we have numerous (I've only included a couple) references to the soul being eternal, either in heaven or hell.
If your soul is eternal how can you murder someone? Our physical bodies are merely containers for our souls. If you murder the body the soul lives on, so is abortion really murder? Has anyone ever really been killed or have we merely destroyed the temporary container furnished for our soul?
Since our souls are eternal, the commandment refers to our physical bodies. The problem with murder, including abortion, is that it interferes with God's plan for us. From Jeremiah 1:4-5 "Now the word of the Lord came to me saying, "Before I formed you in the womb I knew you, and before you were born I consecrated you; I appointed you a prophet to the nations." As kind of an aside, women who had near death experiences that also had abortions reported that, as they were having their lives reviewed, they were shown by God what would have happened to their children if they had not been aborted..........."Before I formed you in the womb I knew you."
(This apparently had a profound effect on these women)
When we murder someone we do not just eliminate the container which carries their soul, we interfere with God's plan for us and this is what warrants the punishment. How arrogant and selfish of us to think we can change what God has planned for us. Is there a worse abomination than to think we know better than God? Can one actually fathom the punishment that awaits a woman, entrusted by God to incubate and nurture our physical bodies, who selfishly or out of complete ignorance chooses to alter God's plan for that soul?
Abortion is murder.........in the sense that the physical container that was to be made for that specific soul has been destroyed, but the hard truth is much, much worse. Abortion is humanities feeble attempt at being superior to God by thinking we can subvert the will of God.
(Edited to add that there are passages in scripture that permit the state to execute criminals and to deal with evil doers by execution/elimination----these are necessary punishments as opposed to the shedding of innocent blood.)
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Soylent Green
I was reading Amy Tuteur MD's latest post on OS when I got to thinking about the movie Soylent Green and the issue of overpopulation. Our current estimated world population is 6.7 billion and the current estimated U.S. population is around 306 million.
The two issues as I see it are the actual overpopulation and employment overpopulation. By actual overpopulation I mean the number of people that the world's natural resources can sustain and by employment overpopulation I am referring to the number of jobs that are available for people.
For the people who think the world is not overpopulated there is the often cited example that you could give every person on earth a 1500/SF condo stacked either 3 or 5 stories high (I forget which) and the entire earth's population could fit into the state of Texas. What's missing from this example is the natural resources required to sustain that population. It has been reported that over 80% of U.S. rivers and streams are contaminated with high levels of heavy metals or other contaminants. Our population is, again, 306 million. China, although a bit larger than the U.S. has roughly the same livable area and has a population of approximately 1.3 billion. India now has a population in excess of a billion as well.
As to the sapping of the world's resources, both China and India are in the early stages of a water shortage, with both countries barely able to supply the recommended daily intake of potable water. Major commodities are getting more difficult to obtain. It is fairly obvious to me that the current worldwide population is large enough to be putting a strain on the world's resources. I would estimate that another billion or so increase in the population would be unsustainable. There are certainly inefficiencies in food production and distribution that, if corrected, might allow for more people, but not much more.
Besides the issue of gross overpopulation, we have the issue of finding jobs for all these people. Ten percent unemployment in the U.S. results in 30 million people out of work. Ten percent unemployment in China results in 130 million people out of work. We have been fortunate in America to have a bunch of ravenous consumers who require the constant production of various commodities and generally useless (but necessary?) items. I maintain that the real issue is not so much how many people the world's resources can sustain, but, instead, how many people can be put to work in gainful employment.
At some point, you have a situation that so many people may be out of work that the rest of the people cannot help them, even though there may be enough natural resources to provide for a larger population. (Let's remember that though the resources may be available, you still must recover and distribute them) Before we discuss the final solution to overpopulation, let's take a walk down memory lane......back to the eugenics movement, and nope it did not start in NAZI Germany.
From the University of Virginia website: "The University of Virginia was home to supporters of the science of eugenics. Dr. H.E. Jordan who became Dean of the Department of Medicine at the University in 1939 delivered an address in 1912 in which he stated:
"It is not too much to say, I believe, that the idea of eugenics, based upon the science of eugenics, will work the greatest social revolution the world has yet known. Closely related to the concept of evolution, which has left its impress on every department of human thought, the idea of eugenics can hardly be compared with it in the pregnancy of its promise, the immensity of its scope, and in the serious import of its reception or neglect for the future trend of nations. It aims at the production and the exclusive prevalency of the highest type of physical, intellectual and moral man within the limits of human protoplasm."
and........"Most involuntary sterilizations occurred in the 1930s and 1940s, but some states, such as Virginia, continued the practice until the law was repealed in the 1970s. Most of the victims were poor and uneducated, and none received compensation. The alignment of eugenics and race purification is commonly associated with Nazi Germany, but the fervor of the eugenics movement in the United States is less widely acknowledged despite the vanguard role played by American scientists. These advocates pushed for the perfection of the human "gene pool" by influencing the reproductive process.
The impact of the Buck v. Bell decision was felt nationwide. After the 1927 decision affirmed Virginia's Eugenical Sterilization Law, there was a swift rise in the number of involuntary sterilizations in the United States. By the early 1930s, thirty American states had adopted eugenics laws. American eugenicists also pushed for anti-immigration measures and stricter laws to prevent racially mixed marriages. When signing the 1924 Immigration Restriction Act, President Calvin Coolidge stated: “America must remain American.”
----------------------
The Nazis picked up the eugenics ball and ran with it, but the idea started here. There were other European countries that were engaging in eugenics as well, such as Sweden. The Nazis took the next step, going from sterilization to attempted extermination.
This brings me back to Dr. Teuter's blog post "Is Alzheimer's care a waste of money?" in which the main gist is that due to the extremely high cost of health care for Alzheimer's patients that we should just discontinue the care for these people. Certainly, it is a practical solution.
So, what other practical solutions can be found for reducing the population? Well, we could say if unemployment tops 15% that the additional unemployed could be eliminated. We can then start getting into the master race issue. We can eliminate the lard asses, the mental gnats (I'm thinkin' liberals, but the libs are probably thinking conservatives), gays, lezzies (the Bible says they have to go, but one would lament the loss of seeing a couple of hot babes getting it on.....at least that would have been my thinking in my pre-Christian days) cigarette smokers, (cigar smokers get a pass) cab drivers, golfers, Catholics etc.
Once we figure out who to off, then we must think about what to do with all those corpses. Seems like such a pity let them go to waste. We could turn them into a spreadable creamy food product that you can smear on crackers or toast. The only thing is, that with all the hazardous chemicals people ingest, you could only eat the Soylent Green twice a month or your health may suffer.
The two issues as I see it are the actual overpopulation and employment overpopulation. By actual overpopulation I mean the number of people that the world's natural resources can sustain and by employment overpopulation I am referring to the number of jobs that are available for people.
For the people who think the world is not overpopulated there is the often cited example that you could give every person on earth a 1500/SF condo stacked either 3 or 5 stories high (I forget which) and the entire earth's population could fit into the state of Texas. What's missing from this example is the natural resources required to sustain that population. It has been reported that over 80% of U.S. rivers and streams are contaminated with high levels of heavy metals or other contaminants. Our population is, again, 306 million. China, although a bit larger than the U.S. has roughly the same livable area and has a population of approximately 1.3 billion. India now has a population in excess of a billion as well.
As to the sapping of the world's resources, both China and India are in the early stages of a water shortage, with both countries barely able to supply the recommended daily intake of potable water. Major commodities are getting more difficult to obtain. It is fairly obvious to me that the current worldwide population is large enough to be putting a strain on the world's resources. I would estimate that another billion or so increase in the population would be unsustainable. There are certainly inefficiencies in food production and distribution that, if corrected, might allow for more people, but not much more.
Besides the issue of gross overpopulation, we have the issue of finding jobs for all these people. Ten percent unemployment in the U.S. results in 30 million people out of work. Ten percent unemployment in China results in 130 million people out of work. We have been fortunate in America to have a bunch of ravenous consumers who require the constant production of various commodities and generally useless (but necessary?) items. I maintain that the real issue is not so much how many people the world's resources can sustain, but, instead, how many people can be put to work in gainful employment.
At some point, you have a situation that so many people may be out of work that the rest of the people cannot help them, even though there may be enough natural resources to provide for a larger population. (Let's remember that though the resources may be available, you still must recover and distribute them) Before we discuss the final solution to overpopulation, let's take a walk down memory lane......back to the eugenics movement, and nope it did not start in NAZI Germany.
From the University of Virginia website: "The University of Virginia was home to supporters of the science of eugenics. Dr. H.E. Jordan who became Dean of the Department of Medicine at the University in 1939 delivered an address in 1912 in which he stated:
"It is not too much to say, I believe, that the idea of eugenics, based upon the science of eugenics, will work the greatest social revolution the world has yet known. Closely related to the concept of evolution, which has left its impress on every department of human thought, the idea of eugenics can hardly be compared with it in the pregnancy of its promise, the immensity of its scope, and in the serious import of its reception or neglect for the future trend of nations. It aims at the production and the exclusive prevalency of the highest type of physical, intellectual and moral man within the limits of human protoplasm."
and........"Most involuntary sterilizations occurred in the 1930s and 1940s, but some states, such as Virginia, continued the practice until the law was repealed in the 1970s. Most of the victims were poor and uneducated, and none received compensation. The alignment of eugenics and race purification is commonly associated with Nazi Germany, but the fervor of the eugenics movement in the United States is less widely acknowledged despite the vanguard role played by American scientists. These advocates pushed for the perfection of the human "gene pool" by influencing the reproductive process.
The impact of the Buck v. Bell decision was felt nationwide. After the 1927 decision affirmed Virginia's Eugenical Sterilization Law, there was a swift rise in the number of involuntary sterilizations in the United States. By the early 1930s, thirty American states had adopted eugenics laws. American eugenicists also pushed for anti-immigration measures and stricter laws to prevent racially mixed marriages. When signing the 1924 Immigration Restriction Act, President Calvin Coolidge stated: “America must remain American.”
----------------------
The Nazis picked up the eugenics ball and ran with it, but the idea started here. There were other European countries that were engaging in eugenics as well, such as Sweden. The Nazis took the next step, going from sterilization to attempted extermination.
This brings me back to Dr. Teuter's blog post "Is Alzheimer's care a waste of money?" in which the main gist is that due to the extremely high cost of health care for Alzheimer's patients that we should just discontinue the care for these people. Certainly, it is a practical solution.
So, what other practical solutions can be found for reducing the population? Well, we could say if unemployment tops 15% that the additional unemployed could be eliminated. We can then start getting into the master race issue. We can eliminate the lard asses, the mental gnats (I'm thinkin' liberals, but the libs are probably thinking conservatives), gays, lezzies (the Bible says they have to go, but one would lament the loss of seeing a couple of hot babes getting it on.....at least that would have been my thinking in my pre-Christian days) cigarette smokers, (cigar smokers get a pass) cab drivers, golfers, Catholics etc.
Once we figure out who to off, then we must think about what to do with all those corpses. Seems like such a pity let them go to waste. We could turn them into a spreadable creamy food product that you can smear on crackers or toast. The only thing is, that with all the hazardous chemicals people ingest, you could only eat the Soylent Green twice a month or your health may suffer.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Double A-Bomb victims, Tsutomu Yamaguchi, Akira Iwanaga and Kuniyoshi Sato
Below is an excerpt fro a TimesOnline blog article written by Richard Lloyd Perry: ( http://timesonline.typepad.com/times_tokyo_weblog/2009/03/the-luckiest-or.html )
"Tsutomu Yamaguchi, Akira Iwanaga and Kuniyoshi Sato are either the luckiest or the unluckiest men alive, and after three days in their company and long hours of conversation, I still had no idea which. It is sixty years since their monstrous ordeal and all three are well into their ninth decade. Mr Sato, who is 86, uses a wheelchair after injuring his back, and 89-year old Mr Yamaguchi is almost deaf in one ear. But all of them exude the dignified vigour of elderly Japanese, the world’s healthiest and longest living race. “I was a heavy smoker,” Mr Yamaguchi told me during our first meeting, “but I gave up smoking and drinking when I was 50. I didn’t expect to live to 80. And now I’m well over 80.” The miracle is not that he is alive now, but that he made it past the age of 29.
Mr Yamaguchi and his friends are freaks of history, victims of a fate so callous and improbable that it almost raises a smile. In 1945, they were working in Hiroshima where the world’s first atomic bomb exploded 60 years ago this morning, on 6 August 1945. 140,000 people died as a result of the explosion; by pure chance, Mr Yamaguchi, Mr Sato and Mr Iwanaga, were spared. Stunned and injured, reeling from the horrors around them, they left the city for the only place they could have gone – their home town, Nagasaki, 180 miles to the west. There, on 9th August, the second atomic bomb exploded over their heads."
------------------------------------
If you ever think you are having a bad week, stop and think about these three guys. Thanks to a bit of topographical good luck, these three men survive the Hiroshima blast only to find themselves in Nagasaki three days later. There is a passage in Perry's article that I actually found a bit humorous. Yamaguchi is back in Nagasaki reporting to the director that sent him to Hiroshima:
“Well, the director was angry. He reproached me for losing Sato. He said: ‘A single bomb can’t destroy a whole city! You’ve obviously been badly injured, and I think you’ve gone a little mad.’ At that moment, outside the window, I saw another flash and the whole office, everything in it, was blown over."
So, as soon as his boss says a single bomb can't destroy an entire city "Fat Man" blows up over their heads. Again, if you think you are having a bad day........
This certainly prompts a discussion about the morality of dropping atomic bombs on Japan. It's going to be a short discussion. It is always easy to be a Monday morning quarterback, but in the context of the time, Truman had no choice. I'm starting to see some revisionist history where things such as the Bataan Death March and the activities of Unit 731 are dropping from the history books. I remember about 8 or 9 years ago talking with a Marine Corps veteran of the Pacific who was in his eighties. He recounted an event where one of their men had become separated from their unit. When they found him several days later they discovered the Japanese had tortured him and cut around his anus and yanked his guts out. Estimated American casualties from an invasion of Japan were at least 250,000 and some estimates were over a million.
For those who think the war with Japan was already over, Japan still had over 2 million soldiers stationed on the main islands and almost 10,000 combat aircraft, most of which were being fitted for Kamikaze missions.
The second world war was a worldwide tragedy, but we had to do what we had to do.
"Tsutomu Yamaguchi, Akira Iwanaga and Kuniyoshi Sato are either the luckiest or the unluckiest men alive, and after three days in their company and long hours of conversation, I still had no idea which. It is sixty years since their monstrous ordeal and all three are well into their ninth decade. Mr Sato, who is 86, uses a wheelchair after injuring his back, and 89-year old Mr Yamaguchi is almost deaf in one ear. But all of them exude the dignified vigour of elderly Japanese, the world’s healthiest and longest living race. “I was a heavy smoker,” Mr Yamaguchi told me during our first meeting, “but I gave up smoking and drinking when I was 50. I didn’t expect to live to 80. And now I’m well over 80.” The miracle is not that he is alive now, but that he made it past the age of 29.
Mr Yamaguchi and his friends are freaks of history, victims of a fate so callous and improbable that it almost raises a smile. In 1945, they were working in Hiroshima where the world’s first atomic bomb exploded 60 years ago this morning, on 6 August 1945. 140,000 people died as a result of the explosion; by pure chance, Mr Yamaguchi, Mr Sato and Mr Iwanaga, were spared. Stunned and injured, reeling from the horrors around them, they left the city for the only place they could have gone – their home town, Nagasaki, 180 miles to the west. There, on 9th August, the second atomic bomb exploded over their heads."
------------------------------------
If you ever think you are having a bad week, stop and think about these three guys. Thanks to a bit of topographical good luck, these three men survive the Hiroshima blast only to find themselves in Nagasaki three days later. There is a passage in Perry's article that I actually found a bit humorous. Yamaguchi is back in Nagasaki reporting to the director that sent him to Hiroshima:
“Well, the director was angry. He reproached me for losing Sato. He said: ‘A single bomb can’t destroy a whole city! You’ve obviously been badly injured, and I think you’ve gone a little mad.’ At that moment, outside the window, I saw another flash and the whole office, everything in it, was blown over."
So, as soon as his boss says a single bomb can't destroy an entire city "Fat Man" blows up over their heads. Again, if you think you are having a bad day........
This certainly prompts a discussion about the morality of dropping atomic bombs on Japan. It's going to be a short discussion. It is always easy to be a Monday morning quarterback, but in the context of the time, Truman had no choice. I'm starting to see some revisionist history where things such as the Bataan Death March and the activities of Unit 731 are dropping from the history books. I remember about 8 or 9 years ago talking with a Marine Corps veteran of the Pacific who was in his eighties. He recounted an event where one of their men had become separated from their unit. When they found him several days later they discovered the Japanese had tortured him and cut around his anus and yanked his guts out. Estimated American casualties from an invasion of Japan were at least 250,000 and some estimates were over a million.
For those who think the war with Japan was already over, Japan still had over 2 million soldiers stationed on the main islands and almost 10,000 combat aircraft, most of which were being fitted for Kamikaze missions.
The second world war was a worldwide tragedy, but we had to do what we had to do.
Monday, March 30, 2009
16 Year old hooker paid with chicken nuggets.
Where is the outrage? They could have at least given her some sweet and sour sauce, those bastards!!!
From TVNZ: An Australian man who pimped a 16-year-old schoolgirl paid her with chicken nuggets for having sex with men, a court has been told.Ronald Vikash Gander, 27, and his 16-year-old girlfriend devised a plan to prostitute a teenage girl so they could afford the weekly $1,050 rent on a serviced inner-Brisbane apartment, the Brisbane District Court was told.
The court was told the girl made $4,500 for having sex with five middle-aged men in June last year.
Gander and his girlfriend used the money for living expenses and paid the girl nothing except for the occasional box of chicken nuggets. The court was told Gander's girlfriend - who cannot be named - threatened the student, who had run away from home, with eviction if she didn't continue having sex with clients to earn her keep. Judge Marshall Irwin described the prostitution offences as "sordid". "The girl was used as if she was a piece of meat ... and your conduct can properly be described as that of a sleaze merchant," Judge Irwin said.
-----------------
I do not think Gander and his girlfriend were behaving any differently than many CEO's. The 16 year old hooker does the dirty work and her "bosses" feel entitled to take most of the money. (How many CEO's do you reckon are Christians? )
This is the typical selfishness one expects to see these days, due in large part to liberals who think it's OK to treat others like crap as long as they get what THEY want. It is just a symptom of a much larger problem. The elitist Obama administration thinks it's perfectly fine to give their elitist CEO friends trillions of taxpayer dollars while only paying lip service to those truly in need.
These bailouts must be a real kick in the balls to all those puppy-eyed Obama supporters who were hoping to get Government money or have their student loans forgiven or mortgages forgiven, etc. (We conservatives feel your pain as many of us were expecting much more from "W", but were highly disappointed.)
If more people would get to church, you'd be reading a lot less about stories such as the one above.
From TVNZ: An Australian man who pimped a 16-year-old schoolgirl paid her with chicken nuggets for having sex with men, a court has been told.Ronald Vikash Gander, 27, and his 16-year-old girlfriend devised a plan to prostitute a teenage girl so they could afford the weekly $1,050 rent on a serviced inner-Brisbane apartment, the Brisbane District Court was told.
The court was told the girl made $4,500 for having sex with five middle-aged men in June last year.
Gander and his girlfriend used the money for living expenses and paid the girl nothing except for the occasional box of chicken nuggets. The court was told Gander's girlfriend - who cannot be named - threatened the student, who had run away from home, with eviction if she didn't continue having sex with clients to earn her keep. Judge Marshall Irwin described the prostitution offences as "sordid". "The girl was used as if she was a piece of meat ... and your conduct can properly be described as that of a sleaze merchant," Judge Irwin said.
-----------------
I do not think Gander and his girlfriend were behaving any differently than many CEO's. The 16 year old hooker does the dirty work and her "bosses" feel entitled to take most of the money. (How many CEO's do you reckon are Christians? )
This is the typical selfishness one expects to see these days, due in large part to liberals who think it's OK to treat others like crap as long as they get what THEY want. It is just a symptom of a much larger problem. The elitist Obama administration thinks it's perfectly fine to give their elitist CEO friends trillions of taxpayer dollars while only paying lip service to those truly in need.
These bailouts must be a real kick in the balls to all those puppy-eyed Obama supporters who were hoping to get Government money or have their student loans forgiven or mortgages forgiven, etc. (We conservatives feel your pain as many of us were expecting much more from "W", but were highly disappointed.)
If more people would get to church, you'd be reading a lot less about stories such as the one above.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
RSS Feed
Posts
All Comments