Friday, April 17, 2009

Don't take the gas, just kick their ass.

Commentary will follow excerpts.

From UPI: "WASHINGTON, April 14 (UPI) -- Gulf Cooperation Council members -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Oman -- are getting ready for what many now assume will be retaliation from Iran following Israeli bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities later this year."

and

From PressTV: "Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Mahdi Safari says the contract to buy Russia's S-300 advance missile system is still on track. "There are no problems with this [S-300] contract," RIA Novosti quoted Safari as saying at the end of his visit to Moscow on Wednesday.

Alexander Fomin, first deputy director of Russia's Federal Military and Technical Cooperation Service declared on Wednesday that there are no S-300 deliveries to Iran, the Interfax news agency reported. "

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I have actually been quite puzzled as to why Israel has not attacked Iran yet. I mentioned in a previous post that the S-300 deployment will force an attack on Iran. Israel has an estimated 300-500 atomic bombs (thanks to the French and their breeder reactor that they sold to Israel in the 1950's) which can, in general, only be delivered by aircraft. While any good military develops counter measures to enemy defenses, the Russians have incorporated some counter-counter measures into the S-300 such that any Israeli attack on Iran after the deployment of S-300's in quantity would result in a huge loss of Israeli aircraft.

In addition to needing planes for nuclear weapons delivery, no modern military can survive without air superiority or air supremacy. Israel simply cannot afford to lose a significant portion of it's air force in an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Although the S-300 contracts have been signed, the Russians have yet to begin scheduled delivery of the AA system. The main reason for this is that the Russians know that the Israelis will attack Iran as soon as these systems start showing up in quantity. This would necessitate a Russian response on Israel. While the Russians have been engaging in limited modernization of their military and they intend to upgrade most of their weapons systems, most of their current arsenal is aging and in need of constant maintenance. Despite their rhetoric and, accurate in my opinion, assessment that Obama is weak regardless of his use of force authorization on the Somali pirates, the Russians would not prefer to deal with the U.S. military that would have to respond in the event of an Israeli strike on Iran.

As the first excerpt mentions, all of the GCC members are considering an Israeli attack on Iran as a foregone conclusion. The Russian withholding of the S-300 deliveries will only delay the inevitable. I might also take this opportunity to note that the Chinese will be a bit pissed at Israel as well over an attack on Iran.

So, we know an Israeli attack on Iran is going to happen. We should also know that we will have to respond, and perhaps respond in a big way, militarily. Knowing this, Obama has indicated he wants to cut the defense budget by 50%. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has indicated he is also OK with cutting the F-22 JSF program, possibly leaving us at an extreme disadvantage with out fighter aircraft. Our own arsenal is in need of upgrading and modernization due to the almost constant use of our hardware since the early 90's.

If congress approves the requested cuts in the defense budget and we have to continue to rely on older equipment, then we could be setting ourselves up for some real trouble. We will not just let the Russians and/or the Chinese attack Israel if Israel attacks Iran, but Obama and congress could put us in a pickle if we are not able to field the latest technology, in quantity, to defend our troops.

As a side issue, a 50% reduction in defense spending will really decimate the economies of states that have a heavy presence of the military. Considering the current condition of the economy, a severe chop in defense spending would be an idiotic decision at this point in time.

Although wars have been used to get us out of economic troubles in the past, I think in this case that the potential consequences of an Israeli strike on Iran would be disastrous due to the nations that would be involved and the rapid escalation that would result. On the other hand, Israel simply cannot allow Iran to build up a nuclear weapons stockpile.

Well, the attack will come. We cannot respond with a weakened military.

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