Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Market uptick, but economic outlook still sucks.

This is kind of a follow up to my earlier post on the economic outlook. I'm going to include some links to other sites, as well as excerpts from some of the articles that you may not generally find in the mainstream media (who are in the tank for Obama and will not generally publish anything that makes the milk chocolate messiah look bad). The market is up today and may stay there for a spell, but the reality is that the overall world economic outlook is bleak.

Link: http://www.rense.com/general85/fedd.htm
Excerpt from The Federal Reserve is Bankrupt:
By Matthias Chang3-10-9
The Federal Reserve is bankrupt for all intents and purposes. The same goes for the Bank of England!

This article will focus largely on the Fed, because the Fed is the "financial land-mine".

How long can someone who has stepped on a landmine, remain standing ­ hours, days? Eventually, when he is exhausted and his legs give way, the mine will just explode!

The shadow banking system has not only stepped on the land-mine, it is carrying such a heavy load (trillions of toxic wastes) that sooner or later it will tilt, give way and trigger off the land-mine![1]

In a recent article, I referred to the remarks of British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and President Obama calling for the shadow banking system to be outlawed.

Even if the call was genuine, it is too late. The land-mine has been triggered and the explosion cannot be averted under any circumstances.

The only issue is the extent of the damage to the global economy and how long it will take for the world to recover from this fiasco ­ a financial madness that has no precedent. The great depression is "Mary Poppins" in comparison!

The idea of a central bank going bankrupt is not that outlandish. I am by no means the first author who has given this stark warning. What underlies this crisis (which I initially examined in an article in December 2006) is the potential collapse of the global banking system, specifically the Shadow Money-Lenders.

Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor said [2]:

"The process of socialising the private losses from this crisis has moved many of the liabilities of the private sector onto the books of the sovereign. At some point a sovereign bank may crack, in which case, the ability of the government to credibly commit to act as a backstop for the financial system ­ including deposit guarantees ­ could come unglued."

Please read the underlined words again. "Sovereign bank" means central bank. When a central bank "cracks" i.e. becomes insolvent, "all hell breaks lose", because as the professor correctly pointed out, "any government guarantees will ring hollow and will be useless".

If a central bank goes belly up, it is as good as the government going bankrupt. Period!

In another article, Roubini admitted that the pressure on "the financial land-mine" is totally unbearable. He wrote: "The US Financial system is effectively insolvent". It follows that if the financial system is bankrupt, it is a matter of time before the "sovereign bank" goes belly up. This is a given!

Link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4965408/Warren-Buffett-says-financial-crisis-is-economic-Pearl-Harbor.html
Excerpt from Warren Buffett says financial crisis is economic Pearl Harbor:
He also warned that recovery would not come quickly.
Acknowledging his own failure to foresee the scale of the crisis, he admitted: "It's fallen off a cliff. Not only has the economy slowed down but people have really changed their habits like I haven't seen."
Mr Buffett, recently ranked the second-richest American by Forbes magazine, said that fear was the greatest cause of damage to the economy, claiming it is now dominating the public's behaviour to an alarming degree.

Link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4958395/Thanks-to-the-Bank-its-a-crisis-in-the-eurozone-its-a-total-catastrophe.html
Excerpt from Thanks to the Bank it's a crisis; in the eurozone it's a total catastrophe:
Spain's agony is already well advanced. Industrial output has fallen 24pc. Some 352,000 people have lost their jobs in two months. BBVA expects unemployment to reach 20pc next year, touching 4.5m. Premier Jose Luis Zapatero can do nothing as long as Spain remains in monetary union.
He cannot devalue to claw back 30pc in lost labour competitiveness against EMU's German bloc, or take emergency steps to slow the property crash. In an odd lapse last week – perhaps a slip – he advised Spaniards that the best thing to do in these dark times was to ****.
Yes, it is dangerous for the Bank of England to buy up a third of all long-dated gilts. But it would be even more dangerous to allow deflation to run its course in an economy where debt levels have reached such extremes. Debt and deflation are a deadly mix.
The errors that led to our current predicament are well-known. A small army of economists – Austrians, Monetarists, and Keynesians – warned that central banks were playing with fire by fixing the price of credit too low and ignoring asset bubbles. The $6.7 trillion in reserve accumulation by China, Japan, and the petro-powers drove bond yields too low for safety.
Credit signals were gravely distorted. In Britain, Gordon Brown poured petrol on the fire by pushing the fiscal deficit to 3pc of GDP at the top of the cycle. Wretched man. However much we rage at Sir Fred or Citi-wrecker Chuck Prince, let us not forget that this crisis was confected by governments. To blame the free market is to miss the bigger point.
But I digress. We are now faced with the post-debt wreckage. The task at hand is to hold our societies together as best we can. One dreads to think what would have happened if the Hoover-BrĂ¼ning nostalgics had succeeded in blocking every remedy.
As it is we have seen industrial production collapse in every region. The drops in January were: Japan (-31pc), Korea (-26pc), Russia (-16pc), Brazil (-15pc), Italy (-14pc), Germany (-12pc). Falls that took two years from late 1929 have been compressed into five months.Spain's agony is already well advanced. Industrial output has fallen 24pc. Some 352,000 people have lost their jobs in two months.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/4966754/World-in-grip-of-Great-Recession-as-growth-dips-below-zero-IMF-warns.html
Excerpt from World in grip of Great Recession, IMF warns.:
Domestic demand across the world was being hit by continued deleveraging by world financial institutions and a collapse in consumer and business confidence.
"When we release our next package of forecasts at the spring session, that is to say in April, everything leads us to believe that it will indeed reveal a negative global growth for the first time in 60 years," he said

Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=apE182UITs2E&refer=economy
Excerpt from German Manufacturing Orders Extend Record Plunge:
March 11 (Bloomberg) -- German manufacturingorders collapsed in January as the global recession smothered exports.
Orders plunged 38 percent from a year earlier, the biggest drop since data for a reunified Germany started in 1991, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. From December they fell 8 percent, four times as much as economists expected and extending their worst decline on record.
“The annual slump is absolutely catastrophic,” said Alexander Koch, an economist at UniCredit MIB in Munich. “The extent of declines is terrifying.”

Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a19xonLTkHIw&refer=economy
Excerpt from Global Confidence Drops as Economies Crumble, Bailouts Needed:
March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence in the world economy dropped in March as the slump proved deeper than forecast and the Obama administration launched new rescues of financial institutions, a survey of Bloomberg users on six continents showed.
The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index fell to 5.95 this month from 8.5 in February. A reading below 50 means pessimists outnumber optimists. Sentiment about Europe and the U.S. slid, while respondents in Asia were less pessimistic about their region, the survey showed.
The global economy may shrink for the first time since World War II, with trade collapsing by the most since the Great Depression, the World Bank said this month. The erosion of confidence is exacerbating the decline; U.S. banking stocks are down 26 percent since the last survey despite a third effort by the government to help Citigroup Inc.
“The financial crisis and the economic recession are feeding on each other, and that’s adding to pessimism,” said Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Bank in Amsterdam who took part in the survey. “We’re still in no man’s land waiting for stimulus packages to take effect. The light at the end of the tunnel is still far away.”

I could have just as easily posted 100 more similar articles/forecasts. It amazes me at how many people have their heads in the sand. Basically, consider the world economy to be a large turd in the toilet bowl..........the flush lever has been pushed and nothing can stop it from going down the drain. My suggestion, stock up on guns, ammo and MRE's.

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